Republicans call it a referendum, Suozzi keeps it local
After George Santos turned his scheming and expulsion from the House of Representatives into a national reality show, coverage of the election to replace him now is being framed as a picture window on the 2024 presidential race and control of Congress.
Yet, the 3rd Congressional District, based on its distinctive demographics, defies any neat comparisons to other House seats in swing states — the hackneyed “bellwether” analogy nor as a “crystal ball” for strategy for the presidential race.
The district is older, wealthier, better educated and living in more costly single family homes. That’s why lifting the $10,000 cap Republicans placed on the deductions of state and local taxes, known as SALT, resonates so well as an issue.
CD3 has a larger foreign born population than in most of the nation’s 435 House districts and many residents who listed an ethnic identity in the district can be traced to earlier waves of immigrants from northern Europe, and also to newer waves from China and India. While the census does not ask for religious affiliation, according to Brandeis University's American Jewish Population Project, CD3 has one of the largest Jewish populations in the nation. That vote would traditionally favor Democrats, but the Oct. 7 attack has upended that math and the direction of that vote is likely to be one of the deciding factors in the election.
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Randi F. Marshall [email protected] and Rita Ciolli [email protected]
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